Prediction Scoring System

Top Analysts uses the Prediction Scoring System to evaluate analysts based on both price accuracy and timing accuracy.

Each eligible prediction can earn a maximum Top Accuracy Score (TAS) of 1,000.

TAS is the scoring system used to evaluate prediction quality.

When a prediction is resolved, TAS is converted into coins and credited to the analyst.

1 TAS = 1 Coin

For example:

• A prediction with a TAS of 875 earns 875 coins.
• A prediction with a TAS of 1,000 earns 1,000 coins.

Coins earned from prediction performance are displayed on analyst profiles and rankings.

In addition, analysts may earn bonus coins through community engagement, such as receiving likes from other users.

1. Prediction Period

Each prediction must include a target date.

• Minimum target period: 30 calendar days from the post date
• Maximum target period: 365 calendar days from the post date

Predictions are designed to reward thoughtful forecasting rather than short-term guessing.

2. Minimum Target Price Change

Analysts may submit a prediction with any target price.

However, a prediction is eligible to earn TAS and coins only if the target price is at least 5% higher or lower than the stock's official closing price on the submission date.

Predictions with a target price change of less than 5%:

• remain visible on the platform;
• may still be recorded as a Hit if the target is reached;
• become part of the analyst's public prediction history; but
• do not earn TAS or coins.

Example

Submission Price: $100

Eligible target prices:

• $105 or above
• $95 or below

Targets between $95.01 and $104.99 are recorded but are not eligible for TAS or coin rewards.

3. One Active Prediction Per Stock

Each analyst may have only one active prediction per stock at a time.

This rule helps prevent overlapping predictions, duplicate forecasts, and unfair outcome hedging.

Reposting another analyst's prediction does not create a scored prediction for the reposter.

TAS, statistics, and rewards apply only to the original author's prediction.

4. Prediction Locking

Predictions may be canceled within the first 24 hours after posting.

Cancellation is permanent and cannot be undone.

It is intended only to correct mistakes.

After 24 hours:

• Predictions become locked.
• Predictions cannot be canceled.
• Target dates cannot be shortened.
• Prediction direction cannot be reversed.

This policy helps maintain fair and transparent analyst records.

5. Waiting Period Rule

Predictions are not eligible for scoring during the first 15 calendar days after posting.

If the target price is reached during the first 15 days, it does not count as a valid hit.

A valid hit can only occur after the 15-day waiting period.

6. Closing Price Verification

Predictions are evaluated using the stock's official daily closing price only.

The following do not count:

• Intraday highs
• Intraday lows
• Pre-market prices
• After-hours prices

This helps ensure consistent and transparent scoring.

7. Tolerance Range

An eligible prediction is considered successful if the stock's official daily closing price reaches the target price within ±2.5%.

Example

Target Price: $100

Valid Target Range:

$97.50 to $102.50

If the official closing price falls within this range after the waiting period and on or before the target date, the target is considered Hit.

8. First Hit

The First Hit is the first official daily closing price that satisfies all of the following conditions:

• occurs after the 15-day waiting period;
• occurs on or before the target date;
• falls within the ±2.5% tolerance range of the target price.

Only the First Hit is used to calculate Timing Accuracy Score.

Subsequent qualifying closing prices do not change the prediction's TAS.

9. Price Accuracy Score

A prediction receives 700 TAS if:

• the prediction is eligible for TAS under the Minimum Target Price Change rule;
• the stock reaches the target price within the ±2.5% tolerance range;
• the First Hit occurs after the 15-day waiting period; and
• the First Hit occurs on or before the target date.

If these conditions are not met, the prediction receives 0 TAS for Price Accuracy.

10. Timing Accuracy Score

Timing Accuracy Score measures how close the First Hit is to the analyst's target date.

Timing Accuracy Score is awarded only if the prediction first earns the Price Accuracy Score.

Formula

Timing Accuracy Score

= 300 × (1 − Timing Difference ÷ Target Period)

Definitions

Timing Difference

The absolute number of calendar days between:

• the First Hit; and
• the target date.

Target Period

The number of calendar days between:

• the post date; and
• the target date.

Timing Score Limits

• Maximum: 300 TAS
• Minimum: 0 TAS

Final scores are rounded to the nearest whole number.

11. Total Top Accuracy Score

The total score for each eligible prediction is:

Total TAS = Price Accuracy Score + Timing Accuracy Score

Maximum possible score:

1,000 TAS

12. Example Calculation

Example Prediction

• Post Date: January 1
• Submission Price: $100
• Target Price: $115 (+15%)
• Target Date: April 1
• Target Period: 90 days
• First Hit: March 28
• Timing Difference: 4 days

Price Accuracy Score

700 TAS

Timing Accuracy Score

300 × (1 − 4 ÷ 90)

= 286.67

Rounded: 287 TAS

Total TAS

700 + 287

= 987 TAS

Coins Rewarded

987 Coins

13. Predictions Not Eligible for TAS

Predictions whose target price changes by less than 5% from the submission price are not eligible for TAS or coin rewards.

However, they:

• remain visible on the platform;
• may still be recorded as Hit or Missed;
• contribute to the analyst's public prediction history; and
• do not affect TAS, Top Accuracy Rate, or coin rewards.

14. Withdrawn Predictions

Analysts may cancel predictions only during the first 24 hours after posting.

After that period, predictions become locked and cannot be canceled.

15. Analyst Statistics

Each analyst profile may display:

• Predictions Submitted
• Active Predictions
• Resolved Predictions
• Top Accuracy Rate

Definitions

Predictions Submitted

Total number of predictions submitted.

Active Predictions

Predictions that are currently ongoing.

Resolved Predictions

Predictions that have reached a final outcome, including:

• Hit
• Missed
• Canceled

Predictions with a target price change of less than 5% are not counted in Resolved Predictions, even if they reach a final outcome.

Top Accuracy Rate

Top Accuracy Rate measures the overall quality of an analyst's TAS-eligible resolved predictions.

Formula

Top Accuracy Rate

= (Total TAS ÷ (Eligible Resolved Predictions × 1,000)) × 100

A Top Accuracy Rate of 100% represents perfect prediction performance across all eligible resolved predictions.

16. Purpose of the Prediction Scoring System

The Prediction Scoring System is designed to:

• Reward meaningful stock forecasting skill.
• Measure both price accuracy and timing accuracy.
• Encourage analysts to make meaningful price forecasts of at least 5%.
• Discourage manipulation and short-term gaming.
• Maintain transparent analyst track records.
• Create a fair and competitive environment for all analysts.

Top Analysts is a platform for sharing market opinions and tracking prediction accuracy. It does not provide investment advice.